The Market…Impossible To Predict
Having just come out of a nice winning trend from the month of February and going to cash as of yesterday morning, I was obviously pleased to see the market strongly sell-off without me today. We don’t often get what we want from the market, but…this is exactly what I wanted!
So as I find myself watching the carnage from the sidelines today, I now get to wonder when the next trend will begin. As Einstein’s contemporary, Niels Bohr said, “prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future”. This is especially valid when it comes to the stock market. The stock market is a dynamic animal that is impossible to predict from one day to the next. However, there is one thing that can sway the odds in your favour, and that is staying with the trend. The saying “the trend is your friend” is almost as old as the market itself, and for good reason.
All the big money is made following the trend in the market, it’s where all my big winners come from. The downside is that the big ones only show up 3-4 times per year. The first one we had this year lasted the entire month of February.
So who knows when the next one will show up, but the system will be there to take advantage of it when it does. In the meantime, let the market fall some more!
Market News:
U.S. stocks traded more than 1 percent lower on Tuesday, pressured by a surge in the dollar and some weakness in oil.
Job openings for January at 5 million were the highest level in 14 years, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
Wholesale inventories for January rose 0.3 percent, beating expectations for contraction.
The National Federation of Independent Business’ small business index for February was an encouraging 98.0, little changed from January’s 97.9 but above the key level of 96 that Hogan recommended as a benchmark.
Fifteen years ago on this day in 2000, the Nasdaq set its all-time closing and intraday highs of 5,048.60 and 5,132.50, respectively.
U.S. stock index futures indicated a sharply lower open on Tuesday, following weakness in Europe, as a fresh dip in the oil price weighed on investor sentiment.
Also on Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration revised upward its 2015 domestic oil production outlook, but lowered its 2016 forecast because it expects the slump in global prices to weigh on the country’s shale boom next year.
Wednesday:
Earnings: Express, Vera Bradley, Box, Home Inns and Hotels, Krispy Kreme, Men’s Wearhouse, Shake Shack
7:00 am: Mortgage applications
1:00 pm: $21 billion 10-year notes auctions